A home, even the smallest flat, is the dream of tired people of
all ages after a long and hard day's work. At the most basic of
levels it's a shelter where people can be warm, safe and relax
after a tough day at their places of employment. But just as
importantly it's somewhere which can be called "home". In cities an
apartment becomes the stuff dreams are made of.
Many fierce arguments have erupted and views
expressed about whether or not the overheating Chinese housing
market would chill somewhat after 2008. Yin Zhongli, expert from
the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, has suggested that prices will drop because of
changes to the structure of the population.?
?
Figures from the National Development and
Reform Commission and National Bureau of Statistics show that the
average sale price of 70 cities in July increased 5.7 percent, 0.1
percent less than the growth in June.
Chinese people observe that "when people get married, a house is
needed" and there isn't a more accurate saying. People aged from 25
to 35 are in "the golden season of marriage" and right at the top
of their wish lists is a home of their own. This ongoing demand
continues to stimulate the housing market boom.
In fact, China's birth rate, which peaked around 1965, has an
influence on the current demand, according to Yin. In 1962 the
birthrate was 3.71 percent; in 1965 it stood at 3.78 percent and in
1970 it was 3.34 percent. Only after 1978 did the figure drop
significantly to 2 percent.
Therefore many people born during the two decades after 1960
were doing the same thing around 2000 – getting married and looking
to purchase their own homes.
After 2008 these people will have all been over 30 and the
majority will have been married. The house purchase peak will pass
at the same time. According to an analysis, the number of marriages
is likely to fall dramatically by 30 percent.
House prices are dictated by market demand. With the changes in
population structure it seems that the current boom could no longer
last after 2008.
Of course, many other factors, including urbanization and
economic development, also influence China's real state market, Yin
said. In order to avoid the negative impact caused by population
change, accelerating the pace of urbanization requires to be given
priority consideration, he added.
(China.org.cn by Wang Ke, August 22, 2006)
