China, the world's biggest corn producer after the US, may
harvest less of the grain this year than estimated a month ago, the
state-affiliated forecaster China National Grain and Oils
Information Center said.
Output may rise 1.73 percent from a year earlier to 148 million
metric tons, one million tons less than forecast last month, the
center said yesterday.
Droughts in spring and summer reduced crop yields in China's
northeastern provinces, the country's top growing region for the
grain. The trimmed forecast comes as livestock feed demand may
surge as increased pork prices cause hog farmers to boost output,
analysts, including Zhao Qiang at Tianqi Futures Co, said.
"We have been exhausting the stockpiles, so supply will be very
tight next year," Harbin-based Zhao told Bloomberg News. "But given
the current prices, no one wants to buy US corn to supplement
because domestic supplies still cost much less."
Benchmark corn futures, traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange,
rose as much as 1.1 percent to 1,783 yuan (US$240) a ton, and
traded at 1,773 yuan at the 11:30am local time break. They have
gained seven percent in the past six months.
Corn shipped to China from the US costs about 2,000 yuan a ton
on arrival, while domestic prices are about 1,700 yuan, Zhao said.
China will issue 7.2 million tons of import quotas to qualified
firms next year, the government said on October 9.
Domestic corn prices may have limited room to rise because feed
producers can use wheat or rice to substitute, said Guo Huiyong,
Beijing-based feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness
Consultant Ltd.
The country's corn plantings may have risen four percent to a
record 28.1 million hectares this year, the Grain and Oils
Information Center said.
Production of wheat may rise 1.48 percent from last year to 106
million tons, also one million tons less than an estimate in
October, as the spring crop was reduced by drought, the center
said.
(Shanghai Daily November 8, 2007)
