A Chinese scholar has predicted that the rural population of
China may drop to 20 percent of the total by 2027, and that
agriculture will then represent less than 5 percent of GDP.
Dang Guoying, a researcher with the Rural Development Institute
under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the transfer of
labor from rural to urban areas is a deep-seated trend, and China
should not impede it.
China currently has 1.3 billion people, more than 800 million of
whom are farmers, or about 60 percent of the total population.
Statistics show that rural populations have shrunk by 1.6
percent annually in recent years. "If more active urbanization
polices are implemented, the rural population will decrease even
more quickly," Dang said.
Vice Minister of Construction Chou Baoxing said at an
international urbanization forum in Shanghai in November that 50
percent of the Chinese population will live in urban areas by
2010.
Some people worry that there will no longer be enough labor
strength in the countryside, with only elderly people, women and
children left there.
But Dang said there is no need to worry about transfer of labor
from rural areas to urban districts. With the development of modern
agricultural technology, elderly people and women can do the work
which young men used to have to do. Agricultural output will not
decrease despite the loss of many male laborers, he said.
As laborers move to urban districts, the income of the farmers
left in rural areas will increase, Dang said.
(Xinhua News Agency January 9, 2007)