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China, the world's most populous country, piloted its new birthrate forecast system on Wednesday in Shanghai. The system was launched in Pudong New District and informed residents they face a baby boom with a peak expected in 2012.

The number of births in the district will soar from the current 15,000 to 25,800 a year, according to the forecast system.

"Sharp increases or sudden declines in the birthrate are bad news for social resources and individual development," said Yin Houqing, head of the district's social development bureau. "Peaks and troughs in the population age structure trigger imbalances in school enrollments and the workforce." 

Imbalances cause unpredictable fluctuations in demand for education and health resources, employment, medical services and welfare for the aged which hinder sustainable development.

"The baby boomers will fight for delivery rooms in hospital and then for desks at school, for jobs in society, for sickbeds when they are old and even for graveyards when they die," said Xu Xinfang, who is a 1980s baby boomer himself. 

Many other areas in China also intend to publish such information in an effort to avoid the baby booms.

A survey of birthrates over the next five years by Qingdao municipal government, in east China's Shandong Province, included a questionnaire on the family planning arrangements of people. 

The family program committee in Shanghai has already established a birthrate forecast system. The committee aims to publish the report at least twice a year. However, many officials and experts worry that deep-rooted superstitions are the biggest stumbling block in applying the system nationwide.

China uses both a solar and a lunar calendar. In 2005 there was no spring according to the lunar calendar. As a result many Chinese regarded the year as inauspicious and avoided getting married or having babies that year and this will recur in 2007. And therefore a small baby boom is inevitable this year.

Many superstitions are still influential in China. For instance it's said not to be good to have a daughter born in the Year of the Sheep. "Popularizing the birth rate forecast system is also a means of eradicating superstition," said Ding Jinhong, a demographer with Shanghai-based East China Normal University. 

(Xinhua News Agency September 21, 2006)