For the moment all parties are very much concerned about the changes of Arafat's illness and are now getting prepared for the affairs of the post-Arafat times. Should Arafat pass away it will certainly exert a great and far-reaching influence on the political situation in the Palestine and the situation between the Palestine and Israel.  

Who's going to take up the job requires much thought

According to the Palestine Law, the president of the legislation committee will automatically take up the presidency once Arafat passes away and a new president will be elected within a time-span of 60 days. Judging from the present situation the trinity is temporarily able to stabilize the political situation. However, due to the fact that Arafat hasn't so far nominated any successor of him and plus the complicated party skirmishes the Palestine is very much likely to fall into a crisis for successor when Arafat passes away. In view of the present situation those possibly to be chosen as Arafat's successor may be the following: Ahmed Qurei, prime minister; Mahamoud Abbas, former prime minister; Dahlan, Palestinian minister of security; Yasser Abed Rabbo, a high-ranking official of Palestine Liberation Organization; Nabil Shaath, Palestinian foreign minister; Saleem Al-zanoon, Palestine National Council speaker; Yasser Abed Rabbo, head of the Preventive Security Service in the West Bank; Marwan Barghouti, Fatah West Bank leader, and so on. But the present situation indicates that the future Palestinian leader is likely to be selected from among the milder sect and possibly to practice a system of collective leadership participated by all parties.

Collective leadership dominates the political power?

A Palestinian eminent writer and political-critic now staying in Lebanon said in an interview that once Arafat dies of illness the power will have to be shared among several persons. He said, "It's impossible for one person to take over all the authorities of Arafat and the power must be jointly executed by several persons."

When commenting on the tendency of the political situation in the Palestine, the political critic said that, once Arafat passes away the trusted fellows round him may kick off a fierce struggle for power.

Though all political strengths in Palestine can unite as one when Arafat is in a crucial moment of illness, the political-critic is of opinion, "It doesn't mean that when Arafat passes away the candidate for the Palestine Liberation Organization can be peacefully solved." It cannot be excluded that a certain nobody politician might come up to the throne of the highest Palestine authority in the political turmoil.

Palestine to be mired in an internal chaos?

So far as the Palestine is concerned it's not a right time for Arafat to fall so seriously ill. Externally speaking, the Israeli Sharon government, taking the advantage of the anti-terrorist war adopted an unprecedented high-handed policy towards the Palestine. Besides, under the background of the international anti-terrorism, the way the Palestine resort to in opposition to Israel get queried and suspected with the Palestine problem being marginalized and reduced to a so solitary position ever faced in history. Once Arafat passes away it is unavoidable to bring about a period of power vacuum and a period for power transition in a short period in the Palestine. In that period it cannot be excluded that there occurs a chaos in which all parties "struggle for hegemony in troubled times." It is also quite likely for the Palestine Liberation Organization to fall apart and the Palestinian Security Organization controlled by Arafat himself alone will perhaps become uncontrollable, thus leading to local warlords separation. The "Peninsula TV" in Qatar and some Arabian media said, in the "post-Arafat times" it is possible to have a civil war as ever happened in Somalia and Lebanon at that time. Once the Palestine falls into an internal turmoil the strength of the Hamas will grow stronger and become dominant on the Palestinian political arena or perhaps to push Abbas onto the leading position to take up the place of Arafat. But he's also likely to be reduced to a puppet unable to secure a real support of those who actually have strength and power in the Palestine.

The Israeli Haaretz newspaper holds, the local leaders in the Palestine, leaders of other armed organizations or Hamas will be likely to control the territory of the Palestine. No matter what's going to happen, one clear point is that the post-Arafat Palestine will be mired into a struggle for political power.

Where to for political situation in Palestine and Israel?

Either serious illness or passing away of Arafat will exert a big impact on the solution of Palestinian and Israeli issue. First of all, the passing away of Arafat means a very big setback for the strength of the milder sect in the Palestine advocating the political settlement of the issue while the strength of the hard-liners may come up. The Hamas and other organizations for holy war may take the advantage to expand and strengthen their forces and influence. Aside from this, the internal policy in the Palestine will be faced with an adjustment. And so in a short period of time, the new Palestine leaders won't be energetic enough nor will they be willing to poke into the "hornet's nest" of the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, thus jeopardizing their own position. The third is, so far as Israel is concerned it will on the one hand strengthen further its advantageous position by using the present situation in the Palestine, deal blows to radical forces. And on the other it will watch calmly the internal changes of the situation in the inside of the Palestine in order to support of the milder sect in the Palestine.

Unilateral action plan obstructed

Aside from the above-mentioned the Israeli political arena will be affected too. The unilateral action plan put forward by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon last year aiming at realizing a unilateral separation of Israel from the Palestine was established on the basis of "no counterpart for the talk". If Arafat unfortunately passes away it's certainly difficult to carry out the unilateral action plan.

If the Israeli government tries to persist willfully and arbitrarily in pushing ahead its unilateral action plan when the Palestinian authority is under a vacuum condition, it is sure to stir up a security crisis in the Gaza strip or even in the western bank areas of the Jordan River. And the Israeli government will be subjected under the condemnation of the international community. It is believed that the Israeli government will not be willing to bog itself down in an awkward position in the international community.

(People's Daily November 10, 2004)