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Iran has made a substantial concession on its uranium enrichment, which is crucial but far from conclusive to the settlement of the country's nuclear case as uncertainty remains concerning the prospects of Iran's nuclear issue.
After several rounds of negotiations between Iran and the European Union, Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani announced Sunday evening that Tehran agreed to suspend "nearly all" uranium enrichment-related activities in a week.
Iran's decision eased a two-month tension on the country's nuclear case, and more important, it was conducive to confining the Iranian case within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), namely, relieving the US pressure of referring the case to the United Nations Security Council.
Washington, accusing Iran of developing secret nuclear programs, has intensified pressure since Iran rejected an IAEA resolution on Sept. 18, which urged Tehran to suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities and provide more transparent cooperation. The IAEA also set a deadline of Nov. 25, when it would convene to discuss the country's nuclear case.
It is believed that the case would possibly go to the UN Security Council if Tehran failed to implement the resolution before the deadline.
Except Washington, all concerning parties of Iran's nuclear case were not willing to see the referral come true.
The European trio of France, Germany and Britain made their utmost diplomatic efforts to dissuade Iran from defying the IAEA. Mohammed El Baradei, director general of the IAEA, also delayed his report on Iran to the agency for two times, just in a bid to wait for Iran's positive answer.
Their efforts did not go in vain. Iran at the crucial time made this substantial concession.
According to the text of the Iran-EU agreement released on Monday, Iran will suspend all activities, including peripherals. This has proven that the current route, addressing the issue within the framework of the UN nuclear watchdog, takes effect. However, it is still too early to become optimistic since Iran's concession is crucial, but far from conclusive.
According to Rowhani's announcement and the text of the Iran-EU agreement, it is stressed that the suspension, even very comprehensive, is a voluntary move.
Taking into account Iran's repeated stance that voluntary suspension can be resumed anytime, one can easily understand that the claim of "voluntary move" is not only for saving face.
Since the IAEA began investigation on Iran's nuclear case, the country has been accustomed to making necessary compromises to avoid an impasse when the situation presents disadvantages to it. However, Iran's past records show that soon after the pressure is relieved, the hardliners of the country would adopt some backward steps or make some new demands.
Tehran posed cooperative stances, and then asked for closure of its nuclear case before the IAEA's meetings in June and September. After being frustrated, it soon threatened to resume uranium enrichment and did resume the assembly of centrifuges.
Nobody can guarantee that this time will be an exception, for Rowhani has expressed Iran's ever-renewed expectation.
"We should see whether Iran's nuclear dossier is likely to be closed. Then we shall make judgment in December," Rowhani said on Tuesday.
"As a first step, let's wait for the Nov. 25 meeting and see whether the EU trio will remain committed to their pledges. The suspension will continue so long as the related negotiations are underway," he said.
"If the talks end up with a deadlock, we will not be committed any more and the suspension will end," he add.
Furthermore, Iran's parliament on Oct. 31 passed the outline of a bill that was aimed at urging the government to resume uranium enrichment.
It is still unclear what the Iranian government will do with the bill or what further moves the hardliner-dominated parliament will act in reaction to the government's decision on suspension. On the other hand, the US will not concede on Iran's nuclear issue.
Washington has made it clear that it will never make agreements through diplomatic means on Iran's nuclear issues. Imaginably, the United States is possibly to launch fresh attacks upon Iran, which must anger the hardliners in the country and touch off counterproductive reactions.
The vicious spiral, which has emerged for several times, may repeat itself.
Iran's concession, even necessary and effective, is not a decisive or conclusive move to bring its nuclear case to an end. What can be assured for now is just that the Islamic republic's nuclear dossier is not close to a closure.
(Xinhua News Agency November 17, 2004)
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