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A decade after its inaction during the Gulf War earned it international scorn, Japan is in another quandary over whether to back any US attack on Iraq -- it still lacks laws needed to provide quick military support.
This time, analysts say, its doubts about attacking Saddam Hussein are shared by a wider range of US allies, making it less likely that Tokyo will again face the embarrassment of 1991 when it provided money, but not military muscle, for the war.
Still, an immediate attack would put Japan in an uncomfortable position, torn between its crucial defense alliance with Washington and a pacifist constitution that makes any expansion of its military role hugely contentious.
"Japan is still watching and waiting," said Yoshikazu Sakamoto, an expert on international politics and emeritus professor of Tokyo University.
"The government will want to see what other nations decide -- this is not the kind of country that goes out on a limb."
US President George W. Bush on Wednesday poured cold water over speculation of an imminent attack, saying the subject was not on the agenda at a top-level security meeting at his Texas ranch.
But he emphasized that ousting Saddam, leader of the country he has described as part of an "axis of evil," was still a top priority for his administration.
A long-time key US ally, Tokyo is hobbled by a pacifist constitution and, lacking its own natural resources, is acutely concerned about the effect of military action on its oil supplies from the region.
The Middle East provides about 85 percent of Japan's crude oil imports.
Despite recent moves out of its military shell, spurred partly by the September 11 attacks, analysts said it would be difficult for Tokyo to provide any practical backing without proof of the country's links to terrorism.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has so far avoided public comment on what is likely to be the most intractable diplomatic problem he has faced since taking office last year.
Koizumi, known for his nationalist tinge, wants to expand Japan's military capabilities, but faces stiff opposition from across the political spectrum, from a skeptical public and from Asian neighbors long suspicious of a more assertive Japan.
While the US administration says there is little time to lose, accusing Saddam of building an arsenal of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons that threatens the whole world, Japan seems to be looking to other allies for a lead.
And there is clear dissent, with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder denouncing the possible attack as "an adventure" and Canada refusing to provide backing without more evidence of imminent Iraqi aggression.
But with US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage scheduled to arrive in Japan for talks with the Defense Agency on Tuesday, clear thinking is a matter of urgency.
A United Nations Security Council resolution on the matter would provide legal backing for an attack, although that seems a remote possibility at present.
"Japan must develop its own line of thinking on this. If it does so, support becomes a possibility," military analyst Kazuhisa Ogawa said.
Anxious not to repeat its Gulf War experience, when it was widely criticized for not sending troops, despite providing around US$11 billion for the war effort, Japan rapidly passed a special anti-terrorism law after September 11.
That allowed it to provide unprecedented military backing for the US war in Afghanistan in the form of refueling ships.
Less enthusiastic cooperation with an Iraq mission could be taken as a slight by the US administration, damaging Tokyo's most valued relationship.
But the anti-terrorism law cannot be extended to cover support for attacks on other countries without proof of their links with terrorism, analysts said.
"If the attack were to go ahead now, Japan would be on the spot. It wouldn't be able to do anything," political and military analyst Hisao Iwashina said.
It might also be hard to swing public opinion behind a war with Iraq with nothing like the sense of imminent danger set off by last year's terrorists attacks on the United States.
"It is a completely different situation this time around. I don't know what the Japanese people will think about it," Sakamoto said.
In the meantime, Japan is waiting and hoping that it will not be asked for any help it might find difficult to provide.
"As far as is possible, Japan just wants America to hold back," Sakamoto said.
(Xinhua News Agency August 24, 2002)
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