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Turkey's refusal to let US troops use its bases for any invasion of Iraq could delay a war until late March or early April, US officials and defense experts said on Monday.
The White House said Turkey's stance had made the situation "more complicated" but warned President Bush remained determined to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein by force if necessary if he did not surrender his alleged arms of mass destruction.
"The president has said the timetable (for possible war) is weeks not months. He said that just over a month ago and nothing has changed that timetable," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters.
But analysts said Turkey's decision, depriving the United States of a "northern front," could delay war for two weeks or more, possibly into April. A new moon then would aid US forces in night fighting in a lightning strike to capture Baghdad itself.
Turkey's decision also prompted concerns Kurds in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq might try to seize oil fields or that Iraq's military might destroy the fields if there was little or no US presence in the early days of an attack.
Senior US defense officials have signaled that US and British warplanes enforcing "no-fly" zones over northern and southern Iraq have widened their targets to soften up Iraqi resistance to any ground invasion.
Fleischer accused Iraq of doing only the bare minimum to meet UN disarmament demands despite Baghdad offering on Monday to submit a new report on VX nerve gas and anthrax stocks in a week's time and scrapping more of its banned missiles.
FRANCE STANDS FIRM
Iraq's moves boosted the case of French President Jacques Chirac and other world leaders opposed to any US-led rush to war.
UN arms inspections were "still the way to go" while Iraq provided full cooperation, Chirac said during a trip to Algiers.
Washington is seeking UN Security Council support for possible military action, but France, Russia and China -- three of the five veto-holders -- argue that inspections should be given more time to work. Bush says he will lead a "coalition of the willing" to disarm Iraq if the UN fails to act. As the United States and close ally Britain built up a force of some 250,000 troops in the Gulf region for possible war, US and British warplanes raided southern Iraq overnight and Iraq said six civilians were killed and 15 wounded.
The US military said planes patrolling Iraq's southern "no-fly" zone struck air defense targets in response to fire from the ground and dismissed as "propaganda" an Iraqi statement that civilians were hit.
In Baghdad, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said Saddam's government would survive any US-led invasion.
"We have no option but to fight the American aggression by all means and we have confidence that we'll win in the end," Aziz told reporters.
The United States and Britain have justified their buildup for war by charging that Iraq has failed to account for all the chemical and biological agents that were slated by the United Nations for destruction after the 1991 Gulf War.
BLIX REPORT ON FRIDAY
Baghdad says it has destroyed all its chemical and biological arms, but chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix, due to report on Iraqi compliance to the UN Security Council at week's end, says Iraq has provided no details to back that up.
Iraq and UN arms experts discussed on Sunday Baghdad's proposal for "quantitative verification" of VX and anthrax. Iraq says it has carried out recent excavations that proved it has destroyed "important quantities" of the banned substances.
"Iraq will be providing a report on the VX and anthrax in a week's time," Hiro Ueki, spokesman for UN weapons inspectors in Baghdad, told Reuters.
Ueki also said six more Iraqi al-Samoud 2 missiles and two empty warheads were destroyed on Monday at Taji base, some 25 miles north of Baghdad. It was the first time warheads related to the missile were destroyed.
Baghdad began on Saturday to destroy some 120 missiles, meeting a key UN deadline. Ten of the missiles, whose range Blix says exceeds the 93-mile limit allowed by UN resolutions, were scrapped on Saturday and Sunday.
Iraq has threatened to stop destroying the Samouds if the United States ignores the United Nations and continues to press for war.
WAR TIMETABLE SEEN SLIPPING
But the missile destruction and the offer of a new report on VX and anthrax led oil traders to believe the war timetable could be pushed back. US light crude fell 72 cents to $35.88 a barrel, extending Friday's 60 cent loss in New York. In London, Brent crude dropped 31 cents to $32.48 a barrel.
In a setback to Washington's plans, there was little hope on Monday that Turkey's parliament might quickly reconsider its narrow vote at the weekend to bar US forces from using Turkish soil as a launchpad to attack Iraq.
A top US general said on Monday a war in Iraq would be successful even without a northern front.
"I don't think it's absolutely a showstopper in terms of whether you have a northern front or not," General James L. Jones, the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, told a news conference in Stuttgart, Germany. "We're going to be successful regardless of what we're limited to."
Analysts say, however, such a campaign would be slower, more costly and far riskier. Kuwait offered on Monday to accept US troops Washington had wanted to deploy in Turkey.
The United States and Britain are likely to seek UN backing for war in the form of a resolution by the Security Council in the days after Blix presents his next report. They have already presented a draft resolution.
(China Daily March 4, 2003)
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