Early reports of shocking price hikes in areas hardest-hit by
the bitter snowstorms might have made it relatively easy for the
public to swallow a 7.1-percent consumer inflation in January.
Given the severity of the supply shock caused by the worst snowy
weather in at least half a century, a short-term acceleration of
inflation at this level, though the highest in a decade, is still
an acceptable result of the Chinese government's efforts to curb
overall price rises.
Had the authorities not tried hard to increase food supplies and
introduced stopgap price controls on a number of daily necessities
before the snowstorms, the consumer prices may have gone through
the roof.
On back of a 6.5-percent headline inflation in December, it took
a lot of endeavors to limit growth of the consumer price index to
7.1 percent in January when both snowstorms and the coming Chinese
New Year were significantly pushing food prices up.
However, while they can breathe a sigh of relief for managing to
cope with short-term inflation factors, policymakers should not
stop fixing their eyes on long-term inflation.
Aggressive price measures that the authorities have adopted will
continue to take effect and thus slow price hikes in the near
future. But the country's inflation outlook may worsen in the long
run if the structural imbalance in the economy cannot be properly
and promptly addressed.
The acceleration in inflation has so far been predominantly
driven by food. But that does not mean the current round of
inflation will be short lived if the supply of food can be
raised.
While food prices surged by 18.2 percent year-on-year, non-food
price inflation remained low at 1.5 percent in January. The slow
rise in non-food prices is rather a source of increasing
inflationary pressure than a reassuring check on further
inflation.
The surge in producer prices which jumped 6.1 percent in
January, the fastest growth in more than three years, indicates
that rising energy and food costs are considerably pushing up
manufacturing costs.
Besides, the enforcement of higher environmental and labor
standards will add to companies' costs. Hence, non-food price
inflation is already in the pipeline.
The complexity of China's growth prospects this year makes it
very difficult for policymakers to fight an all-out war against
inflation. A tightening monetary policy is essential to preventing
serious inflation. But it may also risk slowing the growth of the
Chinese economy by too much as a US slowdown or recession weighs
increasingly heavily on the country's export sector.
The policymakers should certainly be forward-looking and prepare
for the possible downturn.
Yet, an inflation rate above 7 percent currently warrants more
concerns over entrenched inflationary pressures than worries about
a temporary farewell to double-digit economic growth.
(China Daily February 20, 2008)