Georgia: Politically freer, economically almost intact
According to Georgian media, after its secession from the CIS, Georgia would inevitably concentrate more on developing relations with the United States, NATO and the European Union (EU) in order to seek more support from the West for its domestic and foreign policies.
Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temuri Iakobashvili believed the withdrawal was a strategic geopolitical choice as it can accelerate the country's accession to NATO and the EU.
Zurab Khonelidze, Georgia's last permanent representative in the CIS, said "the departure of Georgia will only free Russia from many obligations, including recognition in the framework of this organization of the territorial integrity of Georgia.
"We could have still used (it) to achieve something useful for our country," he added.
Peter Chkheidze, a Georgian expert on international relations, said the withdrawal could damage Georgia's political, economic and cultural ties with other CIS member states.
Leonid Slutsky, Russia's first deputy chairman of the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee, said Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS was an imprudent and demonstrative step.
"The decision to withdraw from the Commonwealth will not give Georgia anything but unnecessary trouble and a doubtful political effect, and will only impact its citizens adversely," the Itar-Tass news agency quoted him as saying on Monday.
From an economic perspective, Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS will have limited influence on its domestic economy.
Together with other CIS member states, Georgia has signed a series of bilateral agreements on economic cooperation before it pulled out of the organization.
According to the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, Georgia remains part of the 75 multilateral agreements, which is not conditional on CIS membership. This includes the agreement on visa-free movement of nationals of the CIS member states and agreement on the creation of a free trade zone.
Moreover, Georgia is still allowed to seek economic cooperation within the framework of GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova). Ukraine and Azerbaijan, both CIS members, are Georgia's second and third largest trade partners.
However, some experts said Ukraine was dependent on Russia due to its demands for Russian gas and the Sevastopol naval base, a Russian base located on the Black Sea coast of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Azerbaijan's crude oil exports was hit hard by last August's war between Russia and Georgia.
In view of Russia's hard-line stance on the maintenance of "superior interests" in the Caucasus region, other members states may take a more cautious attitude towards the enhancement of economic cooperation with Georgia.
The Russian Foreign Ministry believed that Georgia's withdrawal would have a negative impact on the lives of its citizens because Georgia has to mull over signing new deals on visa-free movement, labor exchanges and education with other CIS members.
CIS: Differences remain on its prospects
Media and experts remain at odds over the impact of Georgia's withdrawal from the regional bloc.
Russian media believe the development of the CIS would face more uncertainties after Georgia's withdrawal from the bloc. Among the problems is Ukraine, one of the three founders of the CIS. The intensified tensions and long disputes between Russia and Ukraine have cast a shadow over the prospects of the CIS.
Meanwhile, CIS member states, including Russia, have prepared themselves for Georgia's withdrawal. Therefore, Russian observers believe that Georgia's withdrawal would do no harm to the CIS nor entail any changes.
Konstantin Zatulin, a State Duma deputy and director of the Institute of CIS Countries, said the CIS would work more effectively without Georgia. The concern that other member states would follow Georgia's lead was just an overreaction.
(Xinhua News Agency August 20, 2009)
