By Xu Lifan
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has not faced such a political crisis since 1955. The global financial crisis, the election of President Obama, and the party's own internal problems have combined to reduce the LDP to its weakest position for five decades.
The financial crisis hit Japan's export-oriented economy hard and intensified people's dissatisfaction with the LDP. From the outset of the election campaign the party found itself at a disadvantage. Political developments in Japan followed the recent US pattern. Obama's victory on the presidential race under the slogan of "change", made a deep impression on Japanese voters. After 54 years of LDP rule, Japanese voters were even more ready for change than their American counterparts.
Voters became thoroughly exasperated with factional politics just as the distrust of Prime Minister Taro Aso, and the failure to find a suitable successor, plunged the LDP into internal feuding. The result of the election therefore became a foregone conclusion. The question is – what will happen to Japan's relations with its neighbors under the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government?
The first thing to recognize is that it is voters' disappointment with the LDP rather than the DPJ's maturity that swept the new government into power. While the LDP's political difficulties are not accidental, the DPJ's capture of power was, to some extent, a matter of luck.
Under the country's two-party system, Japanese voters had only two choices. The problems faced by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa showed that the DPJ is not ready to rule the nation. After a honeymoon period, the DPJ will have to face up to the fact that it lacks both a professional administration team and a long-term political strategy. More importantly the DPJ has no remedies for Japan's sluggish economy or its aging society. The Japanese people will soon tire of the DPJ.
Powerless to boost the economy, the only card the DPJ can play is foreign policy. The party is likely to try to reduce the hostility of Japan's neighbors that has resulted from its distortion of history. It will also try to cultivate a sound international environment to help improve Japan's economic situation. DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama has stated clearly that he will not visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. But such cosmetic changes will not be enough to improve the present unstable security situation in Northeast Asia.
From a strategic point of view, a DPJ government does not mean Japan has abandoned its dream of becoming a political and military power as well as an economic power. Japan will continue its pursuit of a great power status. It will continue its campaign to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and will carry on sending troops overseas under the pretext of fighting terrorism. And it is clear that Japan's territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia will not be altered by the change of government.
With regard to Sino-Japanese relations; given the importance of the Chinese market to Japan's economy, the new Japanese government may soften its attitude toward China. But its stance on issues like the East China Sea, the Diaoyu Islands, and contacts with Chinese separatists will not change significantly. On the Korean Peninsular issue, Japan may carry out some form of "back door diplomacy" in an attempt to increase its influence.
Economically, Japan is aware of China's importance for its own recovery. But this is unlikely to lead to a major breakthrough in cooperation. Japan will retain its restrictions on technology exports to China. In terms of the China-ASEAN free trade area and cooperation between China and Africa, Japan is likely to increase investment in ASEAN and Africa to build political support and avoid falling behind China in regional clout.
At home, the DPJ has neither the desire nor the ability to reform Japan's political tradition. The LDP remains the arbiter in Japan's political environment. From this point of view, the length of DPJ rule will essentially be decided by the LDP. If the LDP can quickly choose a vigorous new leader and rally its forces, it will put the DPJ under serious pressure. And if Japan's economy and its overseas relations do not fundamentally improve, it will be extremely hard for the DPJ to remain in power for a lengthy period.
(China.org.cn translated by Zhang Ming'ai, September 1, 2009)
