All those who love peace in this world wish we live in a
nuclear-free world. Unfortunately, due to widely known reasons, our
global village has already stored 14,500 nuclear heads which are
enough to wipe out mankind for more than 100 times. Thus, 178
countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in
the hope that the nuclear weapons will not proliferate any
more.
Meanwhile, the international community also don't like to impose
sanctions on or resort to arms to any country in order to stop the
latter's nuclear program. There are enough lessons to draw if one
looks at the Iraqi people's suffering from the 13-year-old United
Nations (UN) sanctions and the country's extended conflicts and
wars.
Now Iran's nuclear crisis has come to a cross.
Representatives from the five major nuclear powers are gathering
in London to discuss how to deal with Iran's resumption of uranium
enrichment. The European Union (EU) Troika -- Britain, France and
Germany -- have announced to cancel their talks with Iran scheduled
for Wednesday. They plan to join the United States to push the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to pass a resolution on
Iran's nuclear issue in order to submit to the UN Security Council.
Russia's stance also has subtle changes. Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov has recently expressed that Iran's recent resumption of
uranium enrichment made people suspect Iran seeks military purpose
under the pretext of nuclear fuel program. The move indicates that
sanctions are approaching Iran.
With precedence of Iraq and Libya, Iran is quite clear about
what sanctions mean. However, this wouldn't shake Iran's
determination to seek nuclear technology because current Iranian
leaders believe that its national security, status of a power,
state sovereignty and national pride are all related to the nuclear
technology. To abandon it will seriously weaken the
authoritativeness and foundation of the Islamic authority, the
price seems to be higher than a sanction.
US dilemma in Iraq has made it unable to attack Iran militarily
in the near future, on the contrary, it might need Iran's help.
Iranian decision-makers will definitely not miss such a
hard-to-come opportunity to develop its nuclear technology. From
last August to January, within only 4 months, Iran has resumed
uranium enrichment and conversion, "seizing the hour, seizing the
day."
Sanctions are actually double edged. It strikes the punished,
but hurts the punisher too.
Iran is the world's No. 4 oil producer and No. 2 oil exporter in
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In case
of sanctions on Iran, major European oil companies such as Total,
Shell and BP would all have to withdraw from Iran and the EU and
Japan, which heavily rely on Iranian oil, would face severe
shortage of oil.
Russia would also have to stop its cooperation with Iran in
nuclear technology and its high turnover sales of weapons to Iran.
International oil price would soar and world economy would be
affected.
It's also predictable that once being sanctioned, Iran would
immediately withdraw from the NPT and freely develop its nuclear
technology. Once isolated, Iran and its people would oppose America
and other western countries with a stronger anger, and a more
extreme political force would be pushed onto the political
stage.
Many more possible chain effects of sanctions will be
unpredictable. Therefore, the EU and the US, with strong words on
Iran, are still at the stage of threatening to impose sanctions to
deter Iran. Before the "big stick" is wielded, the issue is subject
to the IAEA's voting. If the EU and the US can't get a majority
here, there will be no way for the issue to be referred to the UN
Security Council.
Even if the IAEA passed the resolution, it would remain
difficult to predict if the Security Council will pass a
resolution. Meanwhile, Iran is not pressure to waiting idly to be
sanctioned. It's already used its oil weapon to impose pressure on
the EU, Japan and many other Non-Aligned Movement countries.
Because the bottom line of the two sides is beyond conciliation,
Iranian nuclear crisis is really a difficult diplomatic
problem.
However, to solve the problem, it needs political wisdom, but
not threat or threat to use force because the latter can only end
up a situation where neither side gains and reveal the incompetence
of the authority.
?
The article by former Chinese Ambassador to Iran Hua Liming is
carried on the front page of People's Daily Overseas Edition, Jan.
16, and translated by People's Daily Online.
(People's Daily January 18, 2006)
