By Wang Fan
One of the more prominent characteristics of the past year was
the frequency of nuclear crises. The Iran nuclear crisis and the
Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis took turns in grabbing the world's
attention.
There is also the possibility of triggering a nuclear arms race
among other countries. Therefore it is really not an exaggeration
to call 2006 a year of nuclear crises.
The nuclear crises are a considerable challenge to nuclear
non-proliferation and anti-terror strategy as well as to regional
security mechanisms and cooperation in regional security.
Against the backdrop of these nuclear crises, some new
characteristics and questions have emerged in the area of bilateral
ties between countries and in international security.
The first question is: Can a format of joint management by big
powers be established?
The first new characteristic that comes to mind is the
developing format for joint management by the existing nuclear
powers. Differences still exist between the nuclear powers, and
their rivalry remains intertwined with the nuclear crises.
Nonetheless, they have reached an agreement on countering nuclear
proliferation that is both firm and previously unseen.
The test facing the six-party talks over the Korean Peninsula
nuclear issue is a fundamental turning point. For a long time, the
phenomenon of a traditional security mechanism faced with a
non-traditional security situation in East Asia and some other
regions has been quite prominent.
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The key question here is whether nontraditional security
cooperation can effectively resolve the problems that traditional
security faces. This is a matter of direction for the future
development of cooperation between major powers, a tough problem of
the 21st century that demands all-out efforts by politicians.
So far all major powers have been engaged in both rivalry and
cooperation over many issues, giving rise to competitive but also
mutually reliant relationships, which require better coordinated
actions. More efforts are needed to create a Northeast Asia
security mechanism.
The successful construction of such a security mechanism will
serve as an example for solving other regional issues, including
those in the Middle East.
The second question is: Can security outsourcing work?
Under the premise of joint management by big powers, it seems
possible to apply the idea of outsourcing in building regional
security. There has already been some kind of security outsourcing
under certain conditions, most recently to a certain degree
following the Northeast Asia nuclear crisis.
By security outsourcing I mean the practice among major powers
of sharing or letting other countries shoulder more of their
responsibilities. The reason behind this practice is that the
common ground for cooperation between major powers is expanding,
while efforts by lesser countries to counter the big powers are
gathering momentum.
On the other hand, this shows that cooperation between major
powers is expanding beyond allied bonds and that the big powers are
paying more attention to the collective interest of humankind by
looking beyond ideological differences. Security outsourcing is a
new formula, which could multiply in the future, since cooperation
and mutual trust have been growing noticeably among the big
powers.
To realize the ideal of building a harmonious world, it is
necessary to strengthen cooperation among major powers in a variety
of forms.
The third question is: Can small countries be regulated on how
they try to deter big powers?
In the area of security, one 2006 phenomenon worthy of our
attention is the fact that certain small countries appeared to be
or even succeeded in breaking away from collective control by major
powers.
Although the situation in which joint management by big powers
over world affairs seemed to be improving, the tendency among
certain small countries to break loose was also intensifying and to
a certain degree seemed to be out of control.
In a series of situations, small countries tried to deter major
powers by undertaking their own nuclear research. Certain small
countries actually succeeded in taking advantage of cracks in big
powers' strategic maneuvering or loopholes in the big powers' joint
management mechanism.
In today's world, almost all small countries are faced with two
daunting challenges. One is a difficult existence, including the
absence of safeguards on daily life and a basic sense of security
and equality; the other is development, as shown in the state of
marginalization they find themselves in while watching the rest of
the world ride on a rising tide of economic recovery. This sad
reality is causing their sense of confrontation against the
majority of nations to grow.
As such, the nations of the world should do their best to work
together to give those disadvantaged countries the respect they
deserve and the care they need. Let them feel tangible rewards from
cooperating with other nations in economy and security.
The fourth question is: Will bilateral relations between nations
experience new twists and turns?
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A host of political fusions and fissions are taking place around
the scenes of the Middle East crisis and the nuclear crisis on the
Korean Peninsula. An example of the fusions can be found in
Northeast Asia, where China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK)
have reached increased consensuses while trying to ride out the
nuclear crisis. The Korean nuclear crisis may also bring about
closer cooperation between big powers like China, the United States
and Russia.
As for Sino-Japanese relations, the two nations have taken
another step forward thanks to the understanding that both
countries should maintain a forward-looking attitude on bilateral
ties. The establishment of a China-Japan-ROK free trade area is
also close to the ground-breaking stage.
By fission I mean tendency or trend. For instance, the
differences between the United States and Russia have deepened, and
so have those between China and North Korea. The South-North Korean
ties have also seen the biggest crisis since South Korea launched
its Sunshine Program to help the North.
Looking ahead, nuclear crises created by small countries will
bring increased trouble as well as opportunity to world politicians
and experts in international relations. So look for new approaches,
new conceptions and new explorations in 2007.
The author is director of the Institute of International
Relations at the Beijing-based Foreign Affairs University.
(China Daily January 26, 2007)
