By Yu Sui
Russia lately seems to be toughening up its diplomatic posture
as it faces heavy pressure from several fronts. Two have stood
out.
One is seen in the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin
failed to reach consensus with his American counterpart George W.
Bush when the latter "warmly" welcomed him during his US visit
early this month. On July 14, Russia announced it had temporarily
stopped implementing the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in
Europe (CFE), citing "current extraordinary circumstances" as a
reason, and stated the country "needed to maintain its national
security".
It went on to say that, during the temporary halt, Russia would
not be subjected to any international agreement on limitation of
conventional arms and it would decide the specific quantity of
weaponry as the development of international military and political
situation calls for.
The statement also noted that the move did not mean Russia would
shut the door to dialogue with countries concerned, while
emphasizing that President Putin had asked the Russian Foreign
Ministry and other relevant authorities to monitor reactions from
other signatories of the treaty and take whatever action is
necessary according to the changing situation.
According to Russian wire services, in his meeting with top
Russian military and security services last Wednesday, Putin cited
a number of "global threats" that Russia must be prepared to
encounter. The threats include the US pushing forward plans to
deploy forces in Eastern Europe and the stalled ratification of CFE
in Europe.
As many people are well aware, the CFE treaty was signed in 1990
and is designed to limit the number of combat equipment such as
tanks, heavy artillery, warplanes and helicopter gunships.
The treaty has played a significant role in helping maintain
European stability. Due to different circumstances following the
disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 1999
passed the revised CFE treaty, but so far only Russia, Kazakhstan,
Byelorussia and Ukraine have approved it.
None of the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) have signed the revised CFE treaty because they
want to keep the provision banning large-scale military deployment
in certain border areas, which Russia sees as designed to restrict
troop movements within its own boundaries.
In his state of the union address in late April, Putin pointed
out that NATO members not only had failed to ratify the revised CFE
treaty but also planned to deploy missile defense systems near
Russian borders, for which Russia would have to consider the
possibility of suspending its compliance to the treaty.
By matching Putin's words with action now, Russia has indicated
the time is right to do so as the US has gone ahead with its
missile defense deployment plan anyway.
The other event that prompted Moscow to toughen up is the
expulsion by the British government on July 16 of four Russian
diplomats. The reason Britain gave is that Russia had not provided
adequate response to its request for an explanation of (former
Federal Security Service agent) Alexander Litvinenko's death and
the deportation of the main murder suspect, who is now hiding in
Russia.
Litvinenko defected to Britain in 2000 after he was kicked out
of the FSS. On November 23, 2006 he died in a London hospital,
where doctors announced he had been poisoned by a radioactive
substance polonium-210. British authorities on May 23 accused
Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoi, also a former Russian secret
service agent, of committing the crime and demanded his deportation
to stand trial. Russia refused the request.
The two sides saw their bilateral ties deteriorate afterwards.
On July 16, the British foreign minister called the expulsion of
Russian diplomats "an appropriate move" and hoped it had shown how
serious London was about the matter. Also that day, a Russian
foreign ministry spokesperson described the British act "a
carefully planned move of provocation" designed to "politicize" the
Litvinenko case in an attempt find an excuse for refusing to deport
two suspects wanted by Russia (in a separate case). Those two
suspects are business tycoon Boris Berezovsky (accused of
conspiring to overthrow the Russian government and embezzling
state-owned corporate assets) and head of Chechen rebels
Zakayev.
In a tit-for-tat move, Russia announced the expulsion of four
British diplomats on July 19 and ordered them to leave the country
within 10 days.
It is not the first time Russia and Britain have expelled each
other's diplomats since the end of the Cold War. The latest move by
Britain, however, gives the impression it is acting as Washington's
wingman while the Russia-US relationship turns complicated.
It should be noted that leaders of both Russia and Britain have
not gone all out despite their exhibition of toughness. On the
night of July 16, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, while
stressing in Berlin that Britain "must take action" in response to
the murder case, expressed his country's hope to maintain "a
constructive relationship" with Russia.
On July 19, Putin said in a speech "you must respect your
partner's rights and interests or things will turn worse" and said
he believed "the mini-crisis will be resolved".
On July 22, the British ambassador to Moscow said publicly he
believed UK-Russia ties "is not in a crisis". He also cited the
fast growth of bilateral economic and trade relations, closer
exchanges between the two peoples and expanding cooperation between
the two governments on such issues as the Iran nuclear plan, the
status of the Kosovo region and the Middle East situation.
Following the two events mentioned above were some side
incidents that cannot be considered accidental. One such example is
the joint naval exercise held in the Black Sea near Ukraine by
warships from 13 countries, most of which NATO members. Almost at
the same time, air forces of NATO members held an exercise in
Georgia. On July 9, the Russian Navy's chief officer disclosed a
plan to beef up the country's Navy, especially its Pacific Fleet.
And on July 17, two Russian strategic bombers flew very close to
British air space, prompting the latter's fighter jets to scramble
for interception.
All this has been interpreted as fallouts from crashes between
the national interests of Russia and the US and its allies.
As for Russia's hardening attitude, there are three "causes".
The first is full confidence justified by reason. Russia sees
itself as the victim enjoying considerable sympathy from the
international community. Even political forces within the US are
divided over Washington's plan to deploy missile defense systems in
Eastern Europe.
The House of Representatives approved in May only about half of
the US$310 million budget submitted by the Bush administration for
the missile defense plan, while the Senate was expected to cut the
original budget to US$85 million.
Some American analysts have warned Bush's plan for Eastern
Europe could work against itself by angering Russia, alienating
Europe and offering Iran one more reason to develop long-range
missiles and nuclear weapons.
The second is the growing Russian pride pumped up by increasing
wealth. Though only one-third of America in terms of economic
strength, Russia has maintained the annual growth of its gross
national product at 6-7 percent in recent years. Its budget surplus
and foreign reserve have increased as well.
A new national plan to raise people's living standards has been
adopted and it has repaid ahead of schedule all debts owed to the
Paris Club nations. There is no denying that Russia is feeling
really strong these days.
The third is steely guts kept strong by mounting popular
support. Putin's decisions have won the hearts of Russians
nationwide, whose support for his administration has surged to over
85 percent recently from an already impressive average of 70
percent.
Treated by the West with "a combination of humiliation and
realist politics", Russia's response will be a velvet-gloved iron
fist that will not hurt too much. The Russia-US relationship will
not be derailed and neither will Russia's relations with European
Union members, including Britain.
The seemingly popular notion of a "new Cold War" does not hold
water. As the July 21 issue of the British weekly The Economist
puts it: "Despite the echoes of Soviet-era spats, this stand-off
does not herald the onset of a new cold war Even as they prepared
to destroy one another, the West and the Soviet Union struck deals
and traded in energy."
The Guardian also noted that expelling diplomats is a weapon
often used by rivaling countries during the Cold War in a game of
"tit for tat."
But, today, between Britain and Russia there is no longer a
Cold-War era relationship. As some members of the media have
observed: the current situation has the West putting pressure on
Russia rather than the latter provoking the former.
Putin's hard-nosed stance is to put himself on an equal footing
with the Western countries.
The author is a senior researcher with the Beijing-based
Research Center of Contemporary World.
(China Daily August 1, 2007)
