US President Barack Obama's nomination of Gary Locke to be the American ambassador to China can be seen as a friendly gesture to China. His familiarity with Chinese culture will make it easier for him to understand the Chinese way of doing thing. But as a third-generation American whose paternal grandfather was from Guangdong Province, Locke was born and raised in the US and undoubtedly supports US interests. Though we see a familiar face, China should prepare for coldness.

There is no doubt that an ambassador must understand the country in which he holds a post. But the past 32 years of Sino-US relations show that an ambassador's knowledge of China does not correlate with more positive relations between the two countries. US leaders often act against the advice of their appointed ambassadors, such as former President Bill Clinton with J. Stapleton Roy.

Roy was born in Nanjing to American missionaries and is fluent in Chinese. Despite his extensive knowledge of China, Sino-US relations were more turbulent during his tenure than before. When then-President Jiang Zemin officially stated that there were no chemical weapons materials on board the cargo vessel Yinhe, as suspected by the US government based on CIA reports, Roy advised to keep the matter as low-key as possible. Instead, the incident escalated into an inspection at a Saudi Arabian port.

Roy's personal opinions were also at times at odds with the official US position, upsetting American leaders who have put pressure on China's human rights record. He told the New York Times in 1993, "If you look at the 150 years of modern China's history since the Opium Wars, then you can't avoid the conclusion that the last 15 years are the best 15 years in China's modern history. And of those 15 years, the last 2 years are the best in terms of prosperity, individual choice, access to outside sources of information, freedom of movement within the country and stable domestic conditions."

Finally, before he resigned from his post, Roy advised against issuing a visa to former Taiwanese "President" Lee Teng-hui, who had supported Taiwanese independence. He was again rejected by the US government.

It may be concluded from the above examples that even those who understand China most will not be able to prevent conflicts between China and the US Their recommendations are rarely accepted by US leaders. They are also not entrusted with big responsibilities that would enable them to act on their recommendations.

With all these being said, I do not mean that we do not need to know each other. But I would like to say, bilateral relations, especially Sino-US relations, are extremely complex. Its status depends on many factors. In the post-Cold War era, Sino-US relations suffered a great setback because many US politicians thought China was of little significance to the US. In the past decade, the US understanding of China is completely different. Sino-US relations are maturing. But we should not simply believe that with a China hand, better Sino-US relations are a sure thing.

The author is a?senior research fellow with Tsinghua University's Center for U.S.-China Relations.

(This article was written in Chinese and translated by Li Huiru)

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